Next Bit of News Likely To Be Good

iRobot faces a retailing headwind in the United States this year (even though its consumer sales are UP!), which has crimped its results and stock price to bargain basement levels. But the next few big pieces of news are likely to be good, even very good, indeed.

1) "Large" xBot/PackBot with FasTac orders are expected shortly, according to iRobot CEO Colin Angle. These should generate another round of publicity for the company and perhaps more interest from the big papers and television networks, because of the new robot's status of the first robot for the basic infantry.

2) SUGV Go-No Go decision in September. I'm betting a lot that there will be a "GO" decision on the SUGV Early, which could lead to lots of new orders flowing into 2009 and dramatically boost the company's fortunes. Why?
* The Army is under tremendous pressure to show short-term results from FCS, given the billions and years that have been invested. The SUGV Early is one of the most tangible, easy-to-understand force multipliers to emerge from the program. It's also relatively cheap compared to robotic tanks, etc., and does not require the massive FCS software package to be deployed immediately. Every review from soldiers is that they want the SUGV and they want it NOW.

3) Europe! Foreign sales were up 5X in the first quarter year over year. That's 500% folks! Readers of this blog know that I've been harping on the need for more international sales for the better part of two years, and iRobot apparently is starting to figure out the game. (Not that anybody noticed; everybody was freaked out over LNT's looming bankruptcy filing and lowered profit and revenue expectations.) With the cheap dollar, and the advent of DIRECT sales in Europe, consumer weakness in the United States should be at least partially offset by galloping sales overseas, where there are vast, untapped markets of technologically savvy folks with smaller-than-U.S. homes and apartments who are perfect customers for Roomba, Scooba, et al. There is also plenty of room for dramatic improvements in Asia as well, which already has a pro-robot culture.

4) Higher average prices. The new Roomba 500 Series is commanding a premium of $50-$100 over the older series at retail, even though it probably doesn't cost that much more to produce. I'm convinced the older Roomba 400 Series is being kept around simply to crowd out bargain basement competitors from emerging at a lower price point. Eventually, I imagine that the Roomba 500s will move slightly lower in price at the lower end (i.e., the Roomba 510 has been spotted below $199 a few times as promotional items, though it lacks key features such as a home base and upgradeability for scheduling, etc.).

Tags: iRobot